Forecasted Win Probability
Kathy Castor*
Mike Beltran
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Kathy Castor | 46.20% |
| Mike Beltran | 37.50% |
| Other Option | 16.40% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kathy Castor | $2,337,999 | $820,006 | $96 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
 Mike Beltran | $2,116,747 | $176,884 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
