Forecasted Win Probability
Anna Paulina Luna*
Leela Gray
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Leela Gray | 51.00% |
| Anna Paulina Luna | 46.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Anna Paulina Luna | 47.00% |
| Leela Gray | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 6.00% |
| Tony D'Arrigo | 4.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Anna Paulina Luna | 49.00% |
| Leela Gray | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Anna Paulina Luna | $3,233,312 | $1,890,603 | $149,891 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
 Leela Gray | $1,223,069 | $539,774 | $1,351 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
