Forecasted Win Probability
Joe Strada
James Pericola
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| James Pericola | 42.00% |
| Joe Strada | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 16.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Pericola | $197,289 | $175,408 | - | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Joe Strada | $5,248,640 | $2,999,737 | $218,209 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
