Forecasted Win Probability
Manny Rutinel
Gabe Evans*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Gabe Evans | 47.60% |
| Manny Rutinel | 44.50% |
| Other Option | 7.90% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Gabriel Joseph Evans | $5,393,673 | $1,588,203 | $455,975 | $145,918 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Manny Rutinel | $4,336,988 | $3,735,756 | $3,545,176 | $888,118 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
