Forecasted Win Probability
Jeff Crank*
Jessica Killin
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jeff Crank | 43.00% |
| Jessica Killin | 40.00% |
| Other Option | 13.00% |
| Matt Cavanaugh | 5.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jeff Crank | $2,177,288 | $778,793 | $89,146 | $259,705 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Jessica Killin | $3,143,744 | $1,551,102 | $803 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
