Forecasted Win Probability
Jeff Hurd*
Dwayne Romero
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jeff Hurd | 46.00% |
| Alex Kelloff | 41.00% |
| Other | 13.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jeff Hurd | 48.00% |
| Alex Kelloff | 39.00% |
| Other Option | 12.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jeff Hurd | $3,552,599 | $1,800,885 | $115,791 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
