Forecasted Win Probability
Matsui* / Vang
Republicans
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Other Option | 40.00% |
| Mai Vang | 32.00% |
| Doris Matsui | 28.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Doris Matsui | $3,192,087 | $3,031,300 | $10 | $140,000 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
