Forecasted Win Probability
Richard Pan
Kevin Kiley
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Richard Pan | 36.70% |
| Kevin Kiley | 36.50% |
| Other Option | 26.70% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Richard Pan | 39.00% |
| Kevin Kiley | 35.00% |
| Other Option | 27.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Richard Pan | $1,098,283 | $739,151 | $771 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Kevin Kiley | $2,988,805 | $1,245,831 | $71,088 | $41,903 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Kevin Kiley | $2,699,316 | $1,094,667 | $60,200 | $5,508 | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
