Forecasted Win Probability
Marni Wilpert
Jim Desmond
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Marni Wilpert | 47.00% |
| Jim Desmond | 38.00% |
| Other Option | 15.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Marni von Wilpert | 45.00% |
| Jim Desmond | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 13.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Marni von Wilpert | 48.00% |
| Jim Desmond | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 6.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jim Desmond | $2,258,836 | $1,028,804 | $66,354 | $338,583 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Marni Von Wilpert | $2,174,872 | $1,349,861 | $2,165,965 | $778,454 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
