Forecasted Win Probability
Calvert* / Kim*
Democrats
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 100% fundamentals. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Young Kim | 43.00% |
| Ken Calvert | 34.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Ken Calvert | 35.00% |
| Young Kim | 34.00% |
| Other Option | 29.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Ken Calvert | 33.00% |
| Young Kim | 32.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Young Kim | $8,837,239 | $8,893,142 | $847,047 | $4,538,872 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Young Kim | $8,207,461 | $6,851,898 | $847,047 | $3,476,585 | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
