Thompson* / Jones
Republicans
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Eric Jones | 45.00% |
| Mike Thompson | 35.00% |
| Other Option | 20.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Eric Jones | 53.00% |
| Mike Thompson | 40.00% |
| Other Option | 7.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mike Thompson | $5,482,944 | $5,290,993 | $1,880,352 | $2,834,146 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
