Randy Villegas
David Valadao*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Randy Villegas | 52.00% |
| David Valadao | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 7.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Randy Villegas | 48.00% |
| David Valadao | 44.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jasmeet Bains | 42.00% |
| David Valadao | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 17.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 David Valadao | $6,325,324 | $4,659,208 | $170,323 | $3,808,005 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Randy Villegas | $5,942,030 | $4,979,678 | $2,579,871 | $6,082,205 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
