Forecasted Win Probability
Randy Villegas
David Valadao*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Randy Villegas | 48.00% |
| David Valadao | 44.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Generic Democrat | 44.00% |
| David Valadao | 42.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 David Valadao | $4,927,602 | $1,607,550 | $170,323 | $451,407 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Randy Villegas | $2,645,566 | $2,073,773 | $1,997,206 | $2,287,912 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
