Forecasted Win Probability
Chan / Wiener
Republicans
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Scott Wiener | 45.00% |
| Connie Chan | 34.00% |
| Other Option | 21.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Scott Wiener | 45.00% |
| Connie Chan | 40.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Nancy Pelosi | 45.00% |
| Saikat Chakrabarti | 30.00% |
| Other Option | 25.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Scott Wiener | $4,561,120 | $3,326,428 | $1,247,960 | $41,145 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
