Forecasted Win Probability
Tom Cotton*
Hallie Shoffner
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tom Cotton | 50.00% |
| Hallie Shoffner | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 4.50% |
| Jeff Wadlin | 4.50% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tom Cotton | 50.00% |
| Hallie Shoffner | 39.00% |
| Other Option | 7.00% |
| Jeff Wadlin | 4.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tom Cotton | 51.00% |
| Hallie Shoffner | 35.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
| Jeff Wadlin | 4.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hallie Shoffner | $3,682,226 | $2,257,047 | - | $1,877,376 | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Tom Cotton | $14,357,539 | $13,934,418 | $748,351 | $8,523 | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
