Forecasted Win Probability
French Hill*
Chris Jones
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Chris Jones | 48.00% |
| French Hill | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 8.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Chris Jones | 46.00% |
| French Hill | 43.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Jones | $1,174,414 | $983,016 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 French Hill | $4,421,510 | $2,830,321 | $418,058 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
