Forecasted Win Probability
Joanna Mendoza
Juan Ciscomani*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Joanna Mendoza | 47.00% |
| Juan Ciscomani | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Joanna Mendoza | 42.00% |
| Juan Ciscomani | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 17.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Joanna Mendoza | $7,354,808 | $4,093,932 | $2,858 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/1/2026 |
