Forecasted Win Probability
Eli Crane*
Jonathan Nez
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Eli Crane | 46.00% |
| Jonathan Nez | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Eli Crane | 53.00% |
| Jonathan Nez | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Eli Crane | 44.00% |
| Jonathan Nez | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 9.00% |
| Curtis Goodwin | 7.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jonathan Nez | $3,519,760 | $1,674,073 | $4,798 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/1/2026 |
 Eli Crane | $9,481,428 | $6,957,053 | $76,105 | $884,346 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/1/2026 |
