Forecasted Win Probability
Amish Shah
Jay Feely
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Amish Shah | 44.40% |
| Jay Feely | 41.60% |
| Other Option | 14.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Joanna Mendoza | 47.00% |
| Juan Ciscomani | 44.00% |
| Other | 9.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jay Feely | 42.00% |
| Generic Democrat | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 16.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jay Feely | $2,525,520 | $1,731,045 | $831,147 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/1/2026 |
 Amish Shah | $1,830,193 | $1,520,251 | $169,082 | $2,715,304 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/1/2026 |
| Thomas James Feely | $1,797,546 | $543,368 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
