Forecasted Win Probability
Nick Begich*
Bill Hill
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 57% fundamentals, 18% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Nick Begich | 49.80% |
| Bill Hill | 39.90% |
| Eric Hafner | 6.90% |
| James McDermott | 3.40% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Nick Begich | 47.00% |
| Bill Hill | 35.00% |
| Eric Hafner | 8.00% |
| Jim McDermott | 5.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Nick Begich | 57.00% |
| Bill Hill | 43.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nick Begich | $5,470,446 | $2,455,619 | $556,328 | $125,000 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
 Bill Hill | $1,336,292 | $820,406 | $2,186,268 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
| Bill Hill | $1,170,869 | $468,242 | $326,261 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
