Forecasted Win Probability
Bronson / Wilson / Taylor

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 78% fundamentals, 8% polls, and 14% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 48.00% |
| Bernadette Wilson | 27.00% |
| Dave Bronson | 15.00% |
| Treg Taylor | 10.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 46.00% |
| Bernadette Wilson | 24.00% |
| Dave Bronson | 17.00% |
| Treg Taylor | 13.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 44.00% |
| Bernadette Wilson | 24.00% |
| Other Option | 15.00% |
| Treg Taylor | 9.00% |
| Dave Bronson | 8.00% |