Forecasted Win Probability
Rhett Marques
Shomari Figures*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Shomari Figures | 47.00% |
| Rhett Marques | 47.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Shomari Figures | 46.00% |
| Rhett Marques | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 8.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Rhett Marques | 45.00% |
| Shomari Figures | 44.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shomari Figures | $1,355,789 | $716,297 | $100,000 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
 Rhett Marques | $1,318,574 | $1,130,856 | $2,912,248 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
